Largest observed equity drawdown
The deepest within-period peak-to-trough decline. A period can finish profitable after a much larger temporary loss.
ECB → FOMC · CALENDAR-BASED STRATEGY
One event.
A defined window.
A testable idea.
Trade EURUSD from the ECB press-conference start, only when a scheduled Federal Reserve rate decision falls in the following week.
Explore the evidence ↗20 qualifying events · March 2021 – July 2026
$10,000 starting balance per independent test
Average profit / event
+$90.920.91% of the starting $10,000Average trading period
8.00 daysFirst entry to final close · calendar daysAverage maximum drawdown
2.89%$289.86 · average event maximum01 / PERFORMANCE
The full sample, including the loss.
Each event starts afresh with $10,000.
Before swaps and commissions.
SUM OF 20 INDEPENDENT EVENT RESULTS
+$1,818.46
Each bar represents one complete trading period. Exact dates, drawdowns and durations appear below.
AVERAGE PROFITABLE PERIOD+$114.63
Across 19 profitable periods
BEST PERIOD+$184.01
ECB · 16 March 2023
LOSING PERIOD−$359.46
ECB · 6 June 2024
02 / APPROACH
A calendar filter.
A consistent set of rules.
The FOMC date selects the ECB period. It does not trigger a separate Wednesday entry or require positions to remain open until FOMC.
- 01
Select the week
Use an ECB decision week only if a scheduled FOMC rate decision falls in the following Monday–Sunday week.
- 02
Start at the press conference
Open the strategy’s long and short EURUSD positions at the scheduled ECB conference start. Existing EA rules manage positions and partial exits.
- 03
Manage a limited trading window
While active, allow additional entries on the next two Thursdays at the original entry time. Stop permanently when all positions and orders are closed and balance exceeds $10,000. Otherwise close by the third Friday.
03 / RISK & EVIDENCE
Read the risk alongside the return.
A limited, selected sample
The latest 20 qualifying events as of 8 September 2026. The filter was explored after earlier studies; this is not an untouched out-of-sample validation.
Execution and costs matter
MT5 one-minute OHLC modelling with a 100 ms delay. News-time fills are not reconstructed. Swaps and commissions are excluded. Live results may differ materially.
What the evidence establishes
These numbers describe this historical test under the stated assumptions. The 95% win rate is an observation, not an established probability of future success. There is no live, independently audited track record here. No annualised return, continuously funded portfolio return or maximum possible loss has been established.
The original system is retained, without the experimental safeguards considered in earlier research. Further evaluation would need realistic costs, broader validation and live or forward-test evidence.
04 / COMPLETE RESULTS
Every period, in the open.
USD price-profit equivalents.
No losing periods removed.
| ECB start date | FOMC next week | Profit / loss | Holding days | Max equity DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2021 | 17 Mar 2021 | +$102.22 | 10.91 | 0.52% |
| 22 Apr 2021 | 28 Apr 2021 | +$101.24 | 7.06 | 0.18% |
| 10 Jun 2021 | 16 Jun 2021 | +$102.73 | 12.26 | 5.33% |
| 22 Jul 2021 | 28 Jul 2021 | +$100.31 | 8.10 | 0.76% |
| 28 Oct 2021 | 3 Nov 2021 | +$108.55 | 1.07 | 0.42% |
| 10 Mar 2022 | 16 Mar 2022 | +$103.50 | 7.02 | 2.56% |
| 9 Jun 2022 | 15 Jun 2022 | +$150.81 | 7.02 | 5.41% |
| 21 Jul 2022 | 27 Jul 2022 | +$103.50 | 7.27 | 3.90% |
| 27 Oct 2022 | 2 Nov 2022 | +$146.98 | 7.04 | 5.73% |
| 16 Mar 2023 | 22 Mar 2023 | +$184.01 | 7.21 | 9.05% |
| 14 Sept 2023 | 20 Sept 2023 | +$119.27 | 7.77 | 0.59% |
| 26 Oct 2023 | 1 Nov 2023 | +$100.55 | 7.91 | 1.53% |
| 25 Jan 2024 | 31 Jan 2024 | +$101.17 | 7.11 | 2.01% |
| 6 Jun 2024 | 12 Jun 2024 | -$359.46 | 15.34 | 6.91% |
| 12 Sept 2024 | 18 Sept 2024 | +$104.18 | 10.77 | 6.03% |
| 12 Dec 2024 | 18 Dec 2024 | +$106.26 | 7.78 | 1.10% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | 30 Jul 2025 | +$100.86 | 7.11 | 0.48% |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 17 Sept 2025 | +$131.46 | 7.04 | 3.90% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 17 Jun 2026 | +$102.04 | 6.28 | 0.69% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | +$108.28 | 8.04 | 0.65% |
Holding time includes weekends. Drawdown is each period’s maximum floating-equity decline from a prior peak. Average dollar and percentage maxima are calculated separately from the reports.
Test specification
Market & capitalEURUSD · $10,000 reset per event · 1:100 leverage · no compounding between events.
EA settingsTargetPips 50 · weekly starts enabled · external reserve cash disabled. TargetPips is a trading-math input, not a fixed 50-pip exit promise.
Entry time14:30 Frankfurt before 21 July 2022; 14:45 from that date. Server time is one hour later. First available simulated tick at the scheduled time.
Validation20 fresh tests. Inputs, entries, price profits and closed positions checked. All ten overlapping events reproduced the preceding study’s deals.
Calendar sources: official ECB monetary-policy releases and Federal Reserve statements. ECB timing change ↗ · FOMC calendar ↗