NERDQUANT / HISTORICAL RESEARCH

UK CPI y/y
EURGBP · 20 release periods

January 2025–August 2026 · Entry five minutes after release
Original system · TargetPips 50 · HwmProfitTargetPct 1% · Five calendar weeks maximum

Completion status

20 final periods; 0 provisional. All headline statistics use final periods only.

Final-period results

Average return+0.65%
Profitable / completed19 / 20
Average holding period18.32 days
Maximum holding period30.62 days
Average maximum relative drawdown2.56%
Worst relative drawdown19.14%
Sum of independent returns+13.07%
Average winning period+1.07%
Average losing period-7.33%
Best period2025-03-26 / +2.28%
Worst period2026-06-17 / -7.33%

Profit through the sample

-8.3%-5.4%-2.5%0.4%3.2%2025-01-15: +1.00%2025-01-152025-02-19: +1.06%2025-02-192025-03-26: +2.28%2025-03-262025-04-16: +1.01%2025-04-162025-05-21: +1.00%2025-05-212025-06-18: +1.01%2025-06-182025-07-16: +1.01%2025-07-162025-08-20: +1.03%2025-08-202025-09-17: +1.00%2025-09-172025-10-22: +1.01%2025-10-222025-11-19: +1.05%2025-11-192025-12-17: +1.06%2025-12-172026-01-21: +1.03%2026-01-212026-02-18: +1.00%2026-02-182026-03-25: +1.01%2026-03-252026-04-22: +0.90%2026-04-222026-05-20: +0.82%2026-05-202026-06-17: -7.33%2026-06-172026-07-22: +1.11%2026-07-222026-08-19: +1.01%2026-08-19

Faded bars mark provisional results. Accumulated returns sum independent-event returns and are not a compounded or shared-account portfolio.

Every event

CPI releaseReturnMax relative DDHolding daysFirst fill (server)Final fill (server)Exit
2025-01-15+1.00%0.57%15.292025.01.15 09:05:002025.01.30 15:58:40Flat and profitable
2025-02-19+1.06%2.79%21.212025.02.19 09:05:002025.03.12 14:10:40Flat and profitable
2025-03-26+2.28%6.69%14.472025.03.26 09:05:002025.04.09 20:24:40Flat and profitable
2025-04-16+1.01%0.39%8.062025.04.16 09:05:002025.04.24 10:24:40Flat and profitable
2025-05-21+1.00%0.61%15.042025.05.21 09:05:002025.06.05 10:06:40Flat and profitable
2025-06-18+1.01%1.35%21.282025.06.18 09:05:002025.07.09 15:55:00Flat and profitable
2025-07-16+1.01%1.04%15.172025.07.16 09:05:002025.07.31 13:14:40Flat and profitable
2025-08-20+1.03%0.61%8.272025.08.20 09:05:002025.08.28 15:35:40Flat and profitable
2025-09-17+1.00%0.50%15.212025.09.17 09:05:002025.10.02 14:04:40Flat and profitable
2025-10-22+1.01%0.63%12.132025.10.22 09:05:002025.11.03 12:10:40Flat and profitable
2025-11-19+1.05%1.77%22.042025.11.19 09:05:002025.12.11 10:08:40Flat and profitable
2025-12-17+1.06%1.36%21.372025.12.17 09:05:002026.01.07 17:57:40Flat and profitable
2026-01-21+1.03%3.60%14.412026.01.21 09:05:002026.02.04 18:50:40Flat and profitable
2026-02-18+1.00%0.35%14.432026.02.18 09:05:002026.03.04 19:22:40Flat and profitable
2026-03-25+1.01%0.62%28.082026.03.25 09:05:002026.04.22 11:01:41Flat and profitable
2026-04-22+0.90%2.16%28.052026.04.22 09:05:002026.05.20 10:21:41Flat and profitable
2026-05-20+0.82%0.64%28.332026.05.20 09:05:002026.06.17 16:55:41Flat and profitable
2026-06-17-7.33%19.14%30.622026.06.17 09:05:002026.07.17 23:59:59Maximum window reached
2026-07-22+1.11%2.62%9.362026.07.22 09:05:002026.07.31 17:41:40Flat and profitable
2026-08-19+1.01%3.73%23.502026.08.19 09:05:002026.09.11 21:03:40Flat and profitable

Methodology

First entry at the first simulated tick at or after 07:05 UK local time, five minutes after the 07:00 CPI publication; 09:05 broker time using the established UK+2 convention. If still active, additional entries follow on the same weekday and broker clock at +7, +14, +21 and +28 days. Stop permanently when all positions and pending orders are closed and the balance is profitable. Otherwise close at the final Friday of the fifth calendar week.

Each event starts with 10,000 simulated units. The unchanged profit-in-pips mode produces GBP price-profit equivalents for EURGBP; returns divide those amounts by the initial 10,000 units in the same accounting basis. This is not a faithful USD cash-account simulation. Existing relative equity drawdowns are measured from the relevant equity peak. Average drawdown is the mean of those event maxima. Holding time runs from first opening fill to final closing fill and includes weekends.

TargetPips 50; HwmProfitTargetPct 1%; weekly fresh start enabled; external reserve capital excluded; no experimental safeguards. Platform modelling: M15 period, one-minute OHLC, 100 ms simulated execution delay and 1:100 leverage. Swaps and commissions are excluded, and live news slippage is not reconstructed. Other inflation measures are released simultaneously, so the outcome is not attributable to headline CPI y/y alone.

The September 16, 2026 release is excluded because it is in the future. Data cutoff: September 15 exclusive, covering prices through September 14. Unfinished latest periods are reported separately. Original bulletin dates take precedence over later dataset updates, including June 17, 2026, whose dataset history lists June 18. Sources are linked for each event and archived with inputs, journals and fill audits. Research date: September 15, 2026. Historical results do not establish future profitability.