FOMC press conference
EURUSD · 20 event periods

Completion status

20 final periods; 0 provisional. All headline statistics use final periods only.

Final-period results

Profit through the sample

Faded bars mark provisional results. Accumulated returns sum independent-event returns and are not a compounded or shared-account portfolio.

Every event

Methodology

First entry at 14:35 America/New_York, five minutes after the scheduled 14:30 press conference start. This is normally 21:35 broker time, or 20:35 during the US/UK daylight-saving mismatch. Broker time uses the established UK+2 convention. If still active, additional entries follow on the same weekday and original broker clock at +7, +14, +21 and +28 days. Stop permanently when all positions and pending orders are closed and the balance is profitable. Otherwise close at the final Friday of the fifth calendar week.

Each event starts with 10,000 simulated units. The unchanged profit-in-pips mode produces USD price-profit equivalents for EURUSD; returns divide those amounts by the initial 10,000 units in the same accounting basis. This is not a faithful USD cash-account simulation. Existing relative equity drawdowns are measured from the relevant equity peak. Average drawdown is the mean of those event maxima. Holding time runs from first opening fill to final closing fill and includes weekends.

TargetPips 50; HwmProfitTargetPct 1%; weekly fresh start enabled; external reserve capital excluded; no experimental safeguards. Platform modelling: M15 period, one-minute OHLC, 100 ms simulated execution delay and 1:100 leverage. Swaps and commissions are excluded, and live news slippage is not reconstructed. The policy statement precedes the conference; projections accompany some meetings. Results reflect the full subsequent price path, not an isolated causal effect of the conference.

Today, September 16, 2026, is excluded because the conference had not occurred when the study began. The last completed conference is July 29, 2026. Data cutoff: September 16 exclusive; all requested windows are complete. Conference dates are checked against the official Federal Reserve calendar. A previously validated strategy copy corrects the zero-date initialization check so events on the first day of a month can enter that day. Other strategy rules remain unchanged. The 50-event study includes the same verified 20 recent periods plus 30 earlier periods. Initial execution is the first available simulated tick at or after the scheduled time; actual speaking delays are not reconstructed. Sources are linked for every event, with inputs, journals and fill audits archived locally. Federal Reserve calendar. Research date: September 16, 2026. Historical results do not establish future profitability.