EURUSD after FOMC: the 30-pip move from Tokyo to New York
On Thursdays immediately after FOMC, how often does EURUSD move 30 pips from the Tokyo open—and how much of that move remains at New York’s close?
The finding
A 30-pip move in at least one direction was common in this historical sample. Once a session touched that distance, about three in four finished more than 30 pips from the Tokyo opening price in either direction. That includes reversals; it does not mean a touched upside or downside level was retained.
During the session
Reference: EURUSD price at 09:00 Tokyo. Observation ends at 17:00 New York on the same Thursday, with US daylight saving accounted for.
| Level reached | Sessions | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| At least +30 pips | 84 / 138 | 60.87% |
| At least −30 pips | 88 / 138 | 63.77% |
| Either +30 or −30 pips | 130 / 138 | 94.20% |
| Both +30 and −30 pips | 42 / 138 | 30.43% |
The upside and downside groups overlap. “Touched” means reached at any point, not necessarily at the close.
What remained at New York’s close?
| Starting condition | Closing outcome | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Touched either ±30 | Closed more than 30 pips away, either direction | 76.92% · 100 / 130 |
| Touched either ±30 | Closed within 30 pips of the open | 23.08% · 30 / 130 |
| Touched +30 | Closed at or above +30 | 47.62% · 40 / 84 |
| Touched −30 | Closed at or below −30 | 68.18% · 60 / 88 |
Of all 138 sessions, 28.99% closed above +30 (40 sessions), 43.48% below −30 (60), and 27.54% within ±30 (38). No close was exactly ±30 pips. Irrespective of distance, 46.38% closed higher than the Tokyo open and 53.62% lower.
Session rules, sample and data quality
The study uses 138 Thursdays following FOMC announcements, from September 21, 2006 to July 30, 2026, within the September 16, 2006–September 15, 2026 research window. It includes one Thursday after an emergency decision. Announcements on other weekdays only qualify when the next trading day is Thursday.
Tokyo open is defined as 09:00 Asia/Tokyo (00:00 UTC). New York close is 17:00 America/New_York: 21:00 UTC in US summer time or 22:00 UTC in winter. The close is the last quote before the ending boundary. Each session contains 21 or 22 hourly candles; all 138 have complete hourly timestamp coverage. The opening reference is the first candle’s open. One EURUSD pip is 0.0001.
Source: hourly EURUSD history from the FxPro demo platform. Broker clock conversion uses London local time plus two hours, with historical timezone rules. This convention has not been independently verified for every historical year. Complete hourly coverage does not prove completeness of every tick. The order of touches within an hourly candle is not reconstructed.
FOMC dates were checked against Federal Reserve calendars and historical statement archives. Original hourly records, event mappings and calculations are retained for audit and available on request at research@nerdquant.com.
What this study does—and does not—measure
This is descriptive price research. It places no trades and does not model spreads, commissions, slippage, option premiums or executable fills. Frequencies use the denominators shown in the tables; they are historical observations, not forecasts. The sample spans different volatility regimes and does not establish that FOMC caused these moves.
Average holding period and average account drawdown: not applicable. There are no simulated positions or account equity curve. The observation window is 21–22 hours; an open-to-low price excursion is not an account drawdown.
Research date: September 16, 2026. Percentages may differ slightly from 100% when summed because of rounding.