Risk disclosure

A historical simulation is a research result, not a promise.

Historical and simulated performance

Reports on NerdQuant describe backtests under specified rules and assumptions. They are not live, independently audited account performance. Past or simulated outcomes do not guarantee future results.

Losses and drawdowns

Trading can result in loss of capital. Leverage, accumulating exposure and volatile announcement periods can amplify losses. A high observed win rate can coexist with infrequent large losses. The worst drawdown in a sample does not place a limit on future drawdowns.

Execution and costs

Historical models may not reproduce live spreads, slippage, liquidity, gaps, order rejections or financing costs. Read each study’s cost assumptions. Where commissions and swaps are excluded, the reported figures must not be read as net live returns.

Sample selection

Small samples and decisions informed by previous tests can make results appear more favourable than future experience. Comparisons across different dates can reflect different market conditions as well as changes in the strategy.

Use of the material

The material is for research and information. It is not personalised investment advice, an offer to manage money or an instruction to place a trade. Any decision to use a strategy requires an independent assessment of its assumptions and suitability.

For questions about a published study, contact research@nerdquant.com.