EURGBPHistorical simulation

UK Claimant Count Change: EURGBP five minutes after release

Twenty scheduled releases tested: 19 completed periods and one provisional event. EURGBP entry at 07:05 UK time, with a five-week maximum window.

21 January 2025 - 18 August 202620 tested; 19 final, 1 provisional event periodsResearch date: 2026-09-14

Average profit / event+1.04% (completed periods)

Average holding period16.83 days (completed)

Average max. drawdown2.52% / 2.53% (completed) (peak-relative / initial capital)

Twenty UK Claimant Count publications from January 2025 to August 2026, entering EURGBP five minutes after the 07:00 UK release. The original strategy uses TargetPips 50, weekly additions while active and a permanent stop when flat and profitable, with up to five calendar weeks allowed.

Completion status as of 14 September 2026: 19 periods are final and all finished profitable. The August 18 period remains unfinished; its provisional marked result through the available history is +0.51%. Its planned final trading day is September 18. It is excluded from the completed-period averages and win rate.

The 19 completed periods produced 19.81% total price profit, averaging 1.04%. Average holding time was 16.83 calendar days; average maximum equity drawdown was 2.52% (2.53%), and the largest relative drawdown was 7.27%.

The unchanged simplified tester uses a 10,000-unit balance and GBP price-profit accounting for EURGBP, not a faithful USD cash-account simulation. Results exclude swaps and commissions and do not reconstruct live news execution. Other UK labour-market figures are released simultaneously; this study does not isolate the effect of Claimant Count Change. Historical wins do not establish future win probabilities.